Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa853…58a9 other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$382 (-3%) realized −$312 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 56L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$865
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$675
sports 26% −$823
economics 9% +$16
politics 6% +$13
crypto 4% −$297
culture 1% −$27
world 1% +$36
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +86.5% +68.8% 67% 33% +11.6%
≤30d 12 +105.5% +85.9% 50% 33% -59.2%
≤90d 59 +3.8% -6.1% 34% 17% -41.4%
all 114 +7.5% -2.8% 51% 20% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 20% -12.0%
10% -12.1% 18% -20.4%
15% -20.6% 14% -28.1%
20% -28.4% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$43 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions40
Markets (closed)114 / 154
History coverage239d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 63¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 81¢ $22 $55 +$32 (+147%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mohamed Salah join Paris Saint-Germain? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rafael Leao join Manchester United? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $7 $24 +$18 (+272%)
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+52%)
Relay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 96¢ 67¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-30%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 35¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Austria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 33¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will New Zealand be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+40%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 18¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Saudi Arabia be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $30 $8 −$21 (-72%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will Algeria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 18 $14 +$36 +257%
Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 18 $53 −$3 -5%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $112 +$8 +8%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $858 −$858 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$46 +1329%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 29 $112 +$1 +0%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Federico Dimarco lead Serie A in assists during the 2025-26 seaso May 28 $58 +$12 +20%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 28 $78 +$122 +156%
Will Petar Stanić score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Leag May 20 $198 $0 -0%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer May 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $20 +$222 +1090%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will José Mourinho be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Edin Terzic be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Marco Silva be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Frank Lampard be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 May 12 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champion May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 30 $13 −$10 -77%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 16 $7 +$10 +140%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $30 +$41 +137%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $10 +$30 +300%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $72 +$130 +179%
US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $30 +$85 +283%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $71 1h
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group S BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2h
Will Uzbekistan be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Grou BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group BUY Yes 12¢ $11 7h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 7¢ $6 7h
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 7¢ $0 12h
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will Czechia be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group S BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Czechia be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group S BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
Will Scotland be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group BUY Yes 10¢ $4 15h
Will Mohamed Salah join Paris Saint-Germain? BUY No 93¢ $25 15h
Will Rafael Leao join Manchester United? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 15h
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 15h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S BUY Yes 8¢ $0 18h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 4¢ $2 19h
Will Ecuador be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Will Iran be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stag BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Will Ecuador be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Ecuador be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Ecuador be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.36 · official $573.42 (match) · 1130 history records