Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa851…4ded sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$563 (-14%) realized −$266 · open −$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$704
other 5% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 43% -24.5%
≤30d 30 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 43% -24.5%
≤90d 30 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 43% -24.5%
all 30 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 43% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 43% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 43% -31.7%
15% -20.3% 43% -38.3%
20% -28.2% 40% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$147 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 58¢ 48¢ $160 $132 −$28 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 36¢ 0¢ $268 $0 −$268 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $104 +$92 +88%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $203 +$171 +84%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $249 +$206 +83%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $29 +$47 +165%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$423 +413%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$5 +5%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$6 +6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $366 −$360 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $54 +$52 +97%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$34 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $77 −$76 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $61 +$28 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $192 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $91 −$89 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $102 +$161 +158%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $21 +$24 +111%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $196 −$192 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $170 +$132 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $67 5m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $91 15m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 54¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 30¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 30¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 30¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 52¢ $71 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $197 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 52¢ $33 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 52¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 53¢ $35 5h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $373 16h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 53¢ $101 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 54¢ $101 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $31 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $51 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $102 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 33¢ $71 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $182 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $454 21h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $10 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $61 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $76 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $122 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $122 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $29 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 38¢ $103 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.36 · official $197.36 (match) · 88 history records