Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa850…9b11 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,160 (+140%) realized +$7,515 · open −$355
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$7,287
world 8% +$168
sports 8% −$424
crypto 2% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+124.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +148.1% +124.4% 75% 75% +320.3%
≤30d 8 +148.1% +124.4% 75% 75% +320.3%
≤90d 8 +148.1% +124.4% 75% 75% +320.3%
all 8 +148.1% +124.4% 75% 75% +320.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +124.4% 75% +320.3%
10% ← realistic here +103.0% 75% +280.1%
15% +83.4% 62% +243.4%
20% +65.4% 50% +209.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +365% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +148% · $-wt +365% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,271 vs −$69 · ×18.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×55.3 per $1 lost it wins $55.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,640
Realized+$7,515
Unrealized−$355
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $2,679 $2,639 −$39 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 51¢ 0¢ $316 $0 −$315 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $427 +$168 +39%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $428 +$100 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 +$103 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $719 +$7,054 +982%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 +$98 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $119 +$102 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $110 −$109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $52 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $243 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2,427 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $85 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $34 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $347 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $73 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $112 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $280 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $4 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $4 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $20 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $85 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,639.58 · official $2,639.58 (match) · 47 history records