Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa850…f972 crypto 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate95%310W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$367
14 days+$227
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +4.4% -5.6% 99% 14% -4.4%
≤30d 327 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 17% -10.0%
≤90d 327 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 17% -10.0%
all 327 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 17% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 17% -10.0%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$99 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses310 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)327 / 327
History coverage28d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 327 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $161 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $160 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $240 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $162 +$24 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $161 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $160 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $160 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $160 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $82 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $161 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $81 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $80 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $81 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $81 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $80 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records