Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa84f…bc44 other 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,042 (+2%) realized −$13 · open +$5,055
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%132W / 107L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$841
7 days−$683
14 days−$842
30 days−$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$7,026
other 36% +$15,576
crypto 5% −$5,890
politics 3% +$591
sports 1% +$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +154.5% +130.3% 75% 75% -60.3%
≤30d 32 +46.3% +32.3% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 62 +34.5% +21.7% 50% 47% +5.5%
all 239 +11.6% +0.9% 55% 38% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 38% -10.1%
10% -8.7% 24% -18.7%
15% -17.5% 19% -26.6%
20% -25.6% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,181) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$416 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$10,011
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$5,055
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses132 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions37
Markets (closed)239 / 276
History coverage466d
Avg bet$802
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? No 27¢ 96¢ $477 $1,714 +$1,236 (+259%)
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? No 17¢ 78¢ $361 $1,674 +$1,313 (+364%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 35¢ 80¢ $581 $1,345 +$765 (+132%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $433 $1,144 +$711 (+164%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 74¢ $643 $985 +$342 (+53%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 43¢ 66¢ $443 $675 +$231 (+52%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 19¢ 28¢ $217 $329 +$112 (+52%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 36¢ $268 $291 +$23 (+9%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 13¢ 20¢ $166 $260 +$94 (+57%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No 34¢ 26¢ $263 $204 −$59 (-22%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $193 $189 −$4 (-2%)
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 26¢ 45¢ $103 $176 +$73 (+71%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 43¢ $134 $166 +$32 (+24%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 72¢ $91 $132 +$40 (+44%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 14¢ 41¢ $44 $127 +$83 (+190%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 55¢ $64 $79 +$15 (+24%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 86¢ 93¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+8%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 54¢ 67¢ $54 $67 +$13 (+24%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 28¢ 46¢ $39 $65 +$26 (+66%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 78¢ $39 $48 +$9 (+23%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 34¢ 49¢ $22 $32 +$10 (+44%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 32¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 27¢ $23 $27 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $926 −$887 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $7 +$46 +637%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $266 +$155 +58%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$4 -69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $1,341 −$908 -68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,936 +$753 +39%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 31 $6 +$11 +166%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $395 −$347 -88%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $148 −$99 -67%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $77 −$70 -91%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $156 +$336 +216%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 29 $70 −$11 -15%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 29 $103 −$97 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $37 +$35 +94%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 27 $62 +$336 +538%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $639 −$526 -82%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $233 −$170 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $33 +$68 +209%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $277 +$199 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $491 +$475 +97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $432 +$117 +27%
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 24 $340 −$318 -94%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 23 $690 −$319 -46%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $102 +$115 +113%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $8 +$21 +255%
Will Oro launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 22 $41 +$4 +11%
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 21 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 19 $114 +$41 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $55 −$37 -67%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $629 −$304 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $654 −$592 -90%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 08 $18 +$79 +436%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 06 $29 +$25 +85%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $34 −$33 -97%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? May 01 $473 +$73 +16%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $3,574 +$2,789 +78%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $1,366 +$160 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $7,613 +$1,316 +17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $2,435 +$1,578 +65%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 30 $967 +$32 +3%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026? Apr 28 $793 −$223 -28%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28? Apr 28 $1,423 −$1,332 -94%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 28 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Apr 28 $540 −$540 -100%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $263 −$263 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 45m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 46m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 47m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 47m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 48m
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $6 51m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 14¢ $53 1h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $25 18h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $24 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 33h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $1 44h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $26 44h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $95 44h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $14 44h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $11 44h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $241 44h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $221 44h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $7 45h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $29 45h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $41 2d
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $9 2d
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $21 2d
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $7 2d
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $58 2d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,010.64 · official $10,010.88 (match) · 2753 history records