Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa84d…bebd
crypto · 709 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$952 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,055 · open +$73
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$402
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses387 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$306
Open positions1
Markets (closed)708 / 709
History coverage123d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$116
14 days−$29
30 days−$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 61¢ 74¢ $329 $402 +$73 (+22%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 58¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Viktor Durasovic 41¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Andres Andrade 54¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Kostyuk 43¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Elena Rybakina 66¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5) Cerundolo 79¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 59¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Roberto Bautista Agut 39¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Anastasia Potapova 67¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Maria Sakkari 53¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Cobolli 84¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Andreeva vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 70¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jodar 67¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Iva Jovic 43¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Sabalenka 65¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Osaka Jovic 62¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Anna Kalinskaya 57¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 63¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Cobolli vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 73¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jelle Sels 12¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Henrique Rocha 54¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Fonseca 53¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Paris Saint-Germain FC 19¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion Millen Hurrion 13¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $344 +$54 +16%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $321 +$20 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $301 +$16 +5%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $165 −$164 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $77 +$88 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $47 +$28 +59%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $95 +$96 +101%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $141 −$139 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $254 −$159 -63%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $207 +$47 +23%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $4 −$3 -74%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizu Jun 06 $17 −$13 -79%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 06 $124 −$76 -62%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $106 −$2 -2%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $50 +$45 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $225 −$222 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $23 +$2 +10%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 04 $63 −$21 -34%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $40 +$64 +158%
Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $16 +$9 +57%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $36 +$15 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $275 −$38 -14%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $61 −$60 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nicolas Villalon Jun 02 $231 +$35 +15%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $111 +$135 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $129 −$38 -29%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $145 −$143 -99%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $25 +$14 +54%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $99 +$56 +56%
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Jun 02 $298 −$293 -98%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $265 −$177 -67%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 02 $149 +$103 +69%
Makarska: Leolia Jeanjean vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 02 $165 +$15 +9%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Birmingham: Kayla Day vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 02 $311 +$1 +0%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 02 $82 +$24 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $23 +$7 +30%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Alex Marti Pujolras Jun 02 $271 +$40 +15%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $6 −$5 -81%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $190 +$88 +46%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion Jun 02 $216 −$90 -42%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 02 $98 +$17 +17%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $176 +$112 +64%
Ardila vs. Zink: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $13 −$1 -8%
Heilbronn: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alex Barrena Jun 02 $11 +$1 +13%
Svitolina vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $20 +$8 +38%
Prostejov: Andrej Martin vs Vit Kopriva Jun 02 $100 +$14 +14%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 02 $150 −$148 -98%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 02 $108 +$9 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$78
crypto 21% −$1,163
other 3% +$226
politics 0% +$43
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 61¢ $333 19m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Adam Walton 60¢ $59 20m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 30¢ $31 34m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 73¢ $158 35m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 77¢ $147 37m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 97¢ $398 50m
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tom Gentzsch 100¢ $398 50m
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 86¢ $344 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko SELL Alexander Shevchenko 100¢ $341 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $4 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alexander Shevchenko 94¢ $321 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $313 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 94¢ $301 1h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 66¢ $165 20h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 46¢ $77 23h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $74 23h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 62¢ $47 24h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 100¢ $47 24h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 54¢ $141 24h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 100¢ $7 24h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 100¢ $84 24h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Tristan Boyer 100¢ $49 24h
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 49¢ $95 25h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 35¢ $95 25h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 92¢ $254 26h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Barbora Krejcikova 81¢ $207 28h
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery SELL Yue Yuan 19¢ $1 6d
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery BUY Yue Yuan 70¢ $4 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizu SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 14¢ $4 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizu BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 64¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 45% -14.9%
≤30d 212 -4.9% -13.9% 64% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 523 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 37% -12.8%
all 708 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -11.2%
10% -22.8% 33% -19.7%
15% -30.2% 26% -27.5%
20% -37.1% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.91 · official $401.91 (match) · 2103 history records