Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa847…f50a crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,066 (-11%) realized −$1,063 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%32W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$1,072
crypto 45% +$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -23.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -31.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -37.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,072 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,566
Realized−$1,063
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses32 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage612d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,525 $1,526 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $613 $609 −$4 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $431 $431 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Feb 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Feb 20 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $132 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $507 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $5,025 −$1,072 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $431 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $613 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,525 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $69 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $30 117d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 117d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 117d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $68 117d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $41 278d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $63 278d
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 278d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 278d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 278d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $6 278d
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $6 278d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $5 278d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 278d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem BUY No 100¢ $8 278d
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY No 100¢ $5 278d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 278d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 99¢ $115 402d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $132 402d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 402d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 98¢ $14 402d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 98¢ $10 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $134 421d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,565.97 · official $2,566.28 (match) · 75 history records