Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa846…9e69 crypto 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%205W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$82
other 10% +$97
sports 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.9% +5.8% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤30d 3 +16.9% +5.8% 67% 67% +13.9%
≤90d 76 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 32% -3.0%
all 339 -3.8% -12.9% 60% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 41% -10.2%
10% -21.3% 29% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 19% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses205 / 134
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 340
History coverage115d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $176 +$132 +75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $112 −$57 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $25 −$19 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $24 +$5 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $6 −$4 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $15 +$9 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $11 +$7 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 04 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 04 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $4 +$7 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $81 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $112 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $96 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 46d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 47d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 47d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 47d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 48d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 48d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 48d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 49d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 49d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 49d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $49.59 (match) · 880 history records