Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa83e…a920 crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized −$93 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate90%95W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 31% −$10
crypto 19% −$2
tech 16% −$12
sports 16% −$3
politics 16% −$6
other 2% −$59
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 49 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.6%
all 106 -1.8% -11.2% 90% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses95 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)106 / 113
History coverage243d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 23? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $18 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 13 $54 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $5,055 −$5 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 30 $5,005 −$5 -0%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 22? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 17 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $71 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 8d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $21 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 36d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 49d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $18 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $9 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.69 · official $137.82 (match) · 264 history records