Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa83d…38de
crypto · 26 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$13 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day217.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Down 36¢ 36¢ $99 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$27 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $236 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $147 −$21 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $149 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$39 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$22 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$29 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$21 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $169 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 32% -8.5%
≤30d 25 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 32% -8.5%
≤90d 25 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 32% -8.5%
all 25 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover217.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 32% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 24% -17.2%
15% -20.1% 24% -25.2%
20% -27.9% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.29 · official $96.29 (match) · 229 history records