Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa83c…a8f4 weather 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$66,847 (+57%) realized +$65,764 · open +$1,083
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%111W / 40L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$26,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4,378
14 days+$59,299
30 days+$59,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$64,774
weather 19% −$2,543
sports 7% −$1,626
world 1% −$134
other 1% +$14
crypto 0% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -8.4% -17.1% 72% 26% -19.9%
≤30d 147 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 30% +52.9%
≤90d 147 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 30% +52.9%
all 151 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 29% +52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 29% +52.4%
10% -20.2% 13% +37.8%
15% -27.9% 9% +24.5%
20% -35.0% 9% +12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +68% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$611 vs −$213 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.96 per $1 lost it wins $7.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$26,077
Realized+$65,764
Unrealized+$1,083
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses111 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions27
Markets (closed)151 / 178
History coverage288d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $22,367 $23,613 +$1,246 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 89¢ 100¢ $179 $200 +$21 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $184 $200 +$16 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $191 $200 +$9 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $191 $200 +$9 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$6 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? No 89¢ 100¢ $89 $100 +$11 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 73¢ 69¢ $105 $100 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $83 $93 +$10 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 96¢ 94¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $83 $71 −$11 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 3¢ $98 $3 −$96 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $369 +$31 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 +$72 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $181 +$19 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $205 −$9 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$11 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $692 −$144 -21%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $82 +$47 +57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $152 +$48 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$43 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $179 −$135 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $202 −$27 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $306 +$164 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$23 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $133 −$132 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $125 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $680 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $130 −$100 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $63 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $23 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $49 5m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $24 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $24 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $38 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $67 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $14 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $31 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $47 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $28 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $53 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $80 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $54 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $44 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $28 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $88 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $68 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $89 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $151 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $96 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,077.23 · official $26,077.25 (match) · 1430 history records