Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa839…eaed crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (291 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,881 (-31%) realized −$20,881 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%88W / 493L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day290.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12,812
tech 1% −$257
sports 0% −$265
finance 0% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (291 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 -79.2% -81.2% 7% 6% -91.9%
≤30d 581 -58.0% -62.0% 15% 14% -57.5%
≤90d 581 -58.0% -62.0% 15% 14% -57.5%
all 581 -58.0% -62.0% 15% 14% -57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.0% 14% -57.5%
10% ← realistic here -65.7% 14% -61.5%
15% -69.0% 13% -65.3%
20% -72.0% 12% -68.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$142 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20,881
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses88 / 493
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)581 / 216
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$316
Trades / day290.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 581 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $507 −$507 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $363 −$363 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$186 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $123 −$190 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $132 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $95 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records