Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa837…fd40 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,698 (+37%) realized +$4,698 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$591
14 days−$591
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5,472
crypto 17% −$331
sports 8% −$182
other 6% −$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 40% -24.8%
≤30d 15 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 40% -24.8%
≤90d 19 -33.0% -39.4% 32% 32% -43.0%
all 25 -11.2% -19.6% 32% 32% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 32% +22.7%
10% -27.3% 32% +11.0%
15% -34.4% 28% +0.2%
20% -40.8% 24% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$766) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,229 vs −$315 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,698
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage113d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $412 −$79 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $411 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $412 +$269 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $407 +$115 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $309 +$211 +68%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $73 +$58 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $130 −$127 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$174 +86%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 +$178 +180%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $393 −$385 -98%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $766 −$690 -90%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $1,513 −$747 -49%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 03 $1,047 −$523 -50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $934 −$487 -52%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,400 +$505 +36%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,587 +$8,318 +524%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,348 −$828 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $333 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $681 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $523 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $130 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $377 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $73 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 10h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $99 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records