Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa837…24a4 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,133 (-27%) realized −$1,108 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,674
7 days−$946
14 days−$946
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1,076
sports 10% +$105
crypto 5% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.7% +4.6% 17% 17% -34.1%
≤30d 12 +15.7% +4.6% 17% 17% -34.1%
≤90d 12 +15.7% +4.6% 17% 17% -34.1%
all 13 +6.8% -3.4% 15% 15% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 15% -37.6%
10% -12.7% 15% -43.6%
15% -21.1% 15% -49.0%
20% -28.8% 15% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +131% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,114 vs −$306 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage391d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Australia 6¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,393 −$1,374 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 +$2,017 +982%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on May 24 at 5 PM ET? May 24 $194 −$194 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $113 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 6¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,393 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on May 24 at 5 PM ET? BUY Yes 8¢ $194 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.84 · official $484.84 (match) · 20 history records