Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa832…b819 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$3
other 20% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 0% -9.9%
all 34 -0.7% -10.2% 56% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage482d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $98 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $24 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $44 +$1 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 16 $8 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -35%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 08 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $48 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $48 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $50 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $24 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.57 (match) · 135 history records