Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa831…b3ee crypto 1053 markets active 18h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$751 (-7%) realized −$751 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%496W / 557L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$52
14 days−$45
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$665
sports 28% −$158
other 11% −$76
world 0% +$10
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -41.5% -47.1% 30% 30% -58.2%
≤30d 153 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 35% -11.9%
≤90d 574 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 47% -8.7%
all 1053 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 45% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 45% -16.7%
10% -23.2% 40% -24.7%
15% -30.7% 33% -31.9%
20% -37.5% 27% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$751
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses496 / 557
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1053 / 1053
History coverage372d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1053 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +111%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $24 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$14 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$8 +242%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $15 −$13 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $7 +$5 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire BUY Northamptonshire 71¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2661 history records