Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa830…e4b3 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
world 28% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 18% −$7
crypto 4% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 28 +0.2% -9.4% 54% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage475d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $41 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in February? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $13 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $13 $0 -0%
Fairfield vs. Siena Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Mar 05 $9 $0 -2%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 05 $14 −$1 -7%
San Diego vs. Pacific Mar 05 $19 −$5 -29%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 28 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 17h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $20 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $29 25d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 350d
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $2 366d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 395d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 409d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $2 423d
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? SELL No 99¢ $14 437d
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? BUY No 99¢ $14 438d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 99¢ $14 438d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 99¢ $14 440d
Trump signs national abortion ban? SELL No 96¢ $13 440d
Trump signs national abortion ban? BUY No 96¢ $13 440d
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana SELL Yes 67¢ $3 440d
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana SELL Yes 67¢ $10 440d
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana BUY Yes 67¢ $13 441d
Trump signs national abortion ban? SELL No 96¢ $13 441d
Trump signs national abortion ban? BUY No 96¢ $13 442d
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? SELL No 98¢ $14 442d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.35 · official $28.35 (match) · 66 history records