Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A8 0xa82c…dd71 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$364 (+1%) realized +$446 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$16,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$150
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$156
sports 30% +$615
crypto 15% +$23
tech 9% +$105
finance 7% −$61
economics 3% +$52
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -81.8% -83.6% 0% 0% -83.6%
≤30d 29 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 24% -19.4%
≤90d 49 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 33% -4.3%
all 50 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 32% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -4.6%
10% -25.8% 30% -13.8%
15% -33.0% 24% -22.1%
20% -39.5% 16% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$119 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$16,038
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions102
Markets (closed)50 / 152
History coverage198d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 102 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $1,744 $1,932 +$188 (+11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 44¢ 61¢ $837 $1,160 +$322 (+39%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $696 $704 +$8 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 90¢ 92¢ $627 $640 +$13 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $549 $555 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $540 $528 −$12 (-2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $363 $478 +$115 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $441 $477 +$36 (+8%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $452 $466 +$14 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $426 $417 −$9 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $397 $408 +$12 (+3%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $376 $398 +$22 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 95¢ $269 $378 +$109 (+40%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 80¢ $356 $322 −$34 (-10%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $319 $295 −$23 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $285 $288 +$3 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $286 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $287 $285 −$2 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 94¢ $285 $284 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $280 −$2 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $285 $276 −$9 (-3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $512 $276 −$236 (-46%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 89¢ $283 $267 −$16 (-6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $244 $258 +$13 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 12 $22 −$18 -82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $156 +$243 +156%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $133 +$548 +413%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 07 $451 −$451 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $470 −$470 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $182 +$646 +355%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $300 +$70 +24%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? May 26 $161 −$161 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 26 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 26 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 26 $338 −$338 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $303 −$303 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $153 +$723 +473%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $430 +$171 +40%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $415 +$232 +56%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $319 +$82 +26%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 15 $447 +$197 +44%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? May 01 $651 −$1 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? May 01 $200 +$2 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 27 $647 +$25 +4%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 27 $583 +$112 +19%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 27 $504 +$187 +37%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 27 $688 +$11 +2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? Apr 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division? Apr 12 $376 +$24 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? Apr 12 $246 +$154 +63%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? Apr 12 $198 +$202 +102%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 12 $174 +$234 +135%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Mar 24 $296 +$104 +35%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Mar 22 $105 −$12 -12%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Mar 22 $229 −$13 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Mar 22 $285 +$109 +38%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Mar 22 $103 −$79 -76%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Divisio Mar 21 $386 +$14 +4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Mar 06 $166 −$34 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $146 3h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 7h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 7h
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $289 7h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $286 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $284 7h
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $288 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $283 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $286 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 8h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? BUY No 95¢ $286 8h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY No 93¢ $64 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 8h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 8h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 8h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $340 8h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 85¢ $470 8h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 8h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $3 39h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $4 39h
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri BUY Yes 4¢ $11 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 39h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 39h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $181 43h
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $179 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,037.77 · official $16,037.72 (match) · 557 history records