Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa82c…0e33 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$20
politics 17% −$6
economics 6% −$1
sports 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 107 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 7% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage88d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $278 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 14 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $273 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $286 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $520 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $13 10h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 26h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.19 · official $201.19 (match) · 348 history records