Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A8 0xa82a…852d crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$10
crypto 14% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.0% +8.5% 86% 71% -11.8%
≤30d 14 +20.0% +8.5% 86% 71% -11.8%
≤90d 14 +20.0% +8.5% 86% 71% -11.8%
all 14 +20.0% +8.5% 86% 71% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 71% -11.8%
10% -1.8% 50% -20.3%
15% -11.3% 43% -28.0%
20% -20.0% 21% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.78 · official $20.78 (match) · 37 history records