Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa827…9bbf
other · 9 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 4 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% $0
sports 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 11m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag BUY 17¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -6.5%
all 4 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 50% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 50% -6.5%
10% -15.3% 50% -15.4%
15% -23.5% 50% -23.6%
20% -31.0% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.05 · official $3.05 (match) · 15 history records