Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa826…4b79
crypto · 1651 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$278 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$279 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$279
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1057 / 593
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1650 / 1651
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day74.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1650 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$86
14 days+$95
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 971 +8.8% -1.6% 65% 64% -6.1%
≤30d 1650 +10.0% -0.4% 64% 62% -5.3%
≤90d 1650 +10.0% -0.4% 64% 62% -5.3%
all 1650 +10.0% -0.4% 64% 62% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 62% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 59% -14.4%
15% -18.7% 46% -22.7%
20% -26.6% 34% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records