Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa825…18b3 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$1
world 27% −$9
politics 26% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% −$2
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 10% -13.0%
≤90d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 10% -13.0%
all 32 -0.7% -10.1% 31% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -10.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage270d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $18 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 -7%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $47 −$11 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $14 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 25 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 42m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 42m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $47 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $17 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 11d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 175d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 178d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 88¢ $20 256d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $8 258d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $8 258d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 258d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records