Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa825…67d0 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$33
14 days−$58
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$35
politics 31% −$26
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 50% -14.0%
≤30d 38 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 53% -11.4%
≤90d 38 -15.4% -23.4% 55% 53% -11.4%
all 39 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 51% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 51% -12.5%
10% -32.5% 41% -20.9%
15% -39.1% 28% -28.5%
20% -45.0% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage253d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $501 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +87%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 19 $104 −$96 -93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $498 +$53 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $99 +$28 +28%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $501 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $499 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $501 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $514 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $18 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.17 · official $541.17 (match) · 94 history records