Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa824…436b crypto 1330 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-7%) realized −$232 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%728W / 600L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day112.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$11
14 days−$132
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$182
sports 10% −$63
other 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 42% -12.2%
≤30d 1328 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 51% -16.4%
≤90d 1328 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 51% -16.4%
all 1328 +4.3% -5.6% 55% 51% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 51% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 43% -24.4%
15% -22.9% 38% -31.7%
20% -30.4% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses728 / 600
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1328 / 1330
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day112.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 43¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.41 (match) · 3500 history records