Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa823…6215 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (645 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$30,191 (+49%) realized +$30,200 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%84W / 54L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day644.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$4,508
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (645 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 59% -2.9%
≤30d 138 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 59% -2.9%
≤90d 138 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 59% -2.9%
all 138 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 59% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover644.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 59% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 57% -12.2%
15% -17.4% 52% -20.7%
20% -25.5% 38% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$337 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$30,200
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses84 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$446
Trades / day644.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $252 $245 −$7 (-3%)
APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 93¢ 61¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $447 −$447 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $87 +$28 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $160 +$113 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $172 +$73 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $543 −$543 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $444 −$162 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $536 +$407 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $643 +$501 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $356 +$55 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $445 −$445 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $380 +$411 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $934 +$823 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $751 +$504 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $361 +$160 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$28 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$54 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$37 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $292 +$137 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $225 +$181 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$93 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $212 +$87 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $329 +$227 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $169 +$33 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1,078 +$556 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,103 +$765 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $864 −$864 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$84 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $285 +$125 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $516 −$516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$128 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $459 +$551 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.46 · official $249.92 (match) · 3500 history records