Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A8 0xa823…3327 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$139
14 days−$190
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$901
sports 18% +$917
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.2% -39.5% 50% 50% -48.4%
≤30d 14 -35.6% -41.7% 29% 29% -42.1%
≤90d 60 +64.8% +49.1% 42% 42% -15.7%
all 62 +64.4% +48.7% 42% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.7% 42% -15.9%
10% +34.5% 42% -23.9%
15% +21.5% 39% -31.3%
20% +9.6% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +145% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$63 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage94d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 +$10 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $136 −$135 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 +$39 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $53 −$51 -97%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $111 −$109 -99%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $52 +$59 +114%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) May 21 $51 +$164 +321%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $110 −$108 -98%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 17 $106 +$208 +197%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $98 +$114 +116%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $98 −$96 -99%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? May 08 $51 +$22 +43%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $67 −$66 -98%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-06? May 04 $112 −$110 -99%
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-03-05? May 04 $52 +$68 +132%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08? May 01 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-06? May 01 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-04-28? Apr 27 $102 −$99 -98%
Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba end in a draw? Apr 27 $50 +$103 +206%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $120 +$31 +26%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Apr 25 $75 +$147 +197%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? Apr 24 $88 −$86 -98%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $170 −$168 -99%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $102 +$68 +67%
Spread: CA Unión (-1.5) Apr 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? Apr 12 $110 +$209 +190%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $152 +$221 +145%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $103 +$49 +48%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $99 +$83 +84%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $80 −$79 -98%
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $58 −$57 -98%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $98 −$96 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $50 +$88 +176%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $20 +$54 +269%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03? Apr 01 $104 −$102 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $37 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $136 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $98 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 7d
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 20d
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 20d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 21d
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 21d
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 22d
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 25d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 27d
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 27d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 27d
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) SELL CS Independiente Rivadavia 99¢ $215 28d
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) BUY CS Independiente Rivadavia 23¢ $51 28d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $110 31d
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $313 32d
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $106 32d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $212 32d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $98 33d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $98 40d
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 50¢ $88 41d
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $73 41d
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 41d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 50¢ $67 43d
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 45d
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-03-05? SELL Yes 99¢ $120 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.88 · official $45.27 (match) · 94 history records