Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa821…edae other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-25%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$49
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -20.7% -28.3% 15% 15% -39.5%
≤30d 27 -20.7% -28.3% 15% 15% -39.5%
≤90d 27 -20.7% -28.3% 15% 15% -39.5%
all 27 -20.7% -28.3% 15% 15% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 15% -39.5%
10% -35.1% 15% -45.2%
15% -41.4% 15% -50.5%
20% -47.1% 15% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$6 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 +$11 +206%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$16 +317%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $4 +$32 +776%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? AND Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Bra BUY 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? AND Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $30.88 (match) · 37 history records