Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa81f…a9b9
crypto · 118 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$1,076 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,299 · open −$223
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized+$1,299
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses66 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 118
History coverage230d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 61¢ 26¢ $250 $105 −$145 (-58%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 51¢ 12¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 13 $128 −$126 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $280 +$110 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 19 $400 −$350 -88%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 17 $170 +$30 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 16 $140 +$58 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $400 +$98 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $500 +$94 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $100 −$23 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $42 +$58 +138%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $356 +$188 +53%
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Feb 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 20 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 20 $158 +$40 +25%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 20 $45 −$33 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 18 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 17 $80 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 17 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 14 $94 −$58 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $400 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 12 $706 +$94 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 12 $279 +$21 +7%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 12 $30 +$14 +47%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 12 $268 +$43 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 12 $180 +$86 +48%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $95 by end of February? Feb 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 11 $200 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 11 $170 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 11 $278 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $224 +$58 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 11 $17 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 09 $55 +$44 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 09 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 09 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Feb 04 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 04 $783 +$9 +1%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Feb 04 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $822 +$192 +23%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 29 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Dec 29 $48 +$10 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$274
sports 25% +$607
crypto 22% +$547
culture 4% +$74
world 3% +$130
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13 BUY 78¢ $1 1h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $25 35d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $25 35d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $25 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $176 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $140 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $15 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -98.5% -98.6% 0% 0% -98.6%
≤30d 1 -98.5% -98.6% 0% 0% -98.6%
≤90d 12 +3.5% -6.4% 75% 67% -12.7%
all 115 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 42% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 42% -5.3%
10% -19.2% 30% -14.3%
15% -27.0% 17% -22.6%
20% -34.1% 10% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.17 · official $128.17 (match) · 647 history records