trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 75% | 25% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +9.2% | -1.2% | 75% | 50% | +4.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +16.3% | +5.2% | 73% | 45% | -2.6% |
| all | 13 | +14.9% | +4.0% | 77% | 38% | -2.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.0% | 38% | -2.6% |
| 10% | -6.0% | 31% | -11.9% |
| 15% | -15.1% | 23% | -20.4% |
| 20% | -23.4% | 23% | -28.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $74 | $73 | −$1 (-1%) |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 24¢ | $64 | $56 | −$8 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 24 | $70 | +$6 | +9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 23 | $52 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Jun 21 | $83 | +$46 | +56% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $48 | +$11 | +23% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 15 | $217 | +$39 | +18% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $67 | +$46 | +69% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 29 | $48 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Apr 23 | $1,172 | −$93 | -8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 13 | $130 | +$11 | +8% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $57 | +$73 | +127% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Mar 25 | $54 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 23 | $50 | +$4 | +9% |