Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa81d…32a1 crypto 1851 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate74%1372W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$20
14 days−$50
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$67
other 6% −$26
politics 2% −$30
sports 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 8% -10.0%
≤30d 546 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 30% -14.0%
≤90d 1851 -2.1% -11.4% 74% 16% -13.2%
all 1851 -2.1% -11.4% 74% 16% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 16% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 10% -21.5%
15% -27.6% 9% -29.1%
20% -34.7% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1372 / 479
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1851 / 1851
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1851 Trades
no open positions (383 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$36 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$42 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$28 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$23 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$18 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$42 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records