Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa81d…c27f other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$12
world 30% +$2
politics 19% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 36 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.0%
10% -17.4% 3% -16.8%
15% -25.4% 3% -24.9%
20% -32.7% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage275d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $19 +$24 +127%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $29 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $29 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $29 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $11 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $11 13d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $2 204d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $10 204d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 204d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 204d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 204d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records