Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A8 0xa81c…3d28 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$330 (+4%) realized +$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,080
7 days−$1,080
14 days−$1,279
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$76
other 27% −$99
crypto 16% −$396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -63.0% -66.5% 15% 15% -28.9%
≤30d 43 -30.6% -37.2% 28% 26% -17.1%
≤90d 43 -30.6% -37.2% 28% 26% -17.1%
all 63 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 37% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 37% -16.0%
10% -31.6% 29% -24.0%
15% -38.2% 21% -31.4%
20% -44.2% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$79 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage340d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $887 −$887 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $788 +$101 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 1AM ET Jun 27 $35 −$16 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $43 −$33 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 11AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$24 -56%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 27 $276 +$512 +186%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $311 −$83 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$204 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 27 $395 −$122 -31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $641 +$451 +70%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $499 +$144 +29%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $195 −$158 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $204 −$46 -22%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $291 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$3 +326%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $227 +$83 +36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $502 +$107 +21%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $51 +$14 +27%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $138 −$63 -46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $434 +$726 +167%
XRP Up or Down - July 27, 7AM ET Jul 27 $25 −$15 -59%
XRP Up or Down - July 27, 5AM ET Jul 27 $25 +$24 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 4AM ET Jul 27 $25 −$22 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 3AM ET Jul 27 $42 +$60 +142%
Solana Up or Down - July 27, 2AM ET Jul 27 $30 +$12 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 1AM ET Jul 27 $43 +$8 +20%
Solana Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET Jul 27 $26 +$7 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $887 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 90¢ $880 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai SELL Shara Magomedov 85¢ $8 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 79¢ $788 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $641 20h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $642 39h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 77¢ $499 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 55¢ $9 8d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $28 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $142 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 8d
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Tai Leonard Sach 49¢ $26 8d
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Tai Leonard Sach 33¢ $18 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $319 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $291 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records