Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa819…5062
weather · 770 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$200 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$208 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$40
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses121 / 633
Open positions16
Markets (closed)754 / 770
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 754 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 24¢ 90¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+275%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 42¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 25? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 22? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +385%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 18% -3.8%
≤30d 383 -19.6% -27.3% 16% 14% -16.2%
≤90d 754 -21.4% -28.9% 16% 14% -18.4%
all 754 -21.4% -28.9% 16% 14% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 14% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 13% -26.2%
15% -41.9% 12% -33.4%
20% -47.6% 12% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.33 (match) · 1603 history records