Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa817…1c3b sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$727 (-36%) realized −$727 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$79
other 32% −$91
world 3% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 58% 58% -20.0%
≤30d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 58% 58% -20.0%
≤90d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 58% 58% -20.0%
all 26 +8.4% -1.9% 58% 58% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 58% -20.0%
10% -11.3% 54% -27.7%
15% -19.9% 35% -34.6%
20% -27.7% 31% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$95 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$131 +128%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 +$154 +152%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $153 +$222 +145%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$37 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$70 +196%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$61 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $159 −$157 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $90 −$22 -24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$22 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $159 +$39 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $70 +$31 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 +$23 +106%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 37m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 37m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 37m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $375 37m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $153 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $57 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $60 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $58 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 30¢ $24 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 30¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records