Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa815…9cbe
other · 704 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13,556 -306%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open −$638
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,036
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$638
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses123 / 141
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions500
Markets (closed)264 / 704
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day485.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 500 History 264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $62 $43 −$19 (-30%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $61 $40 −$21 (-34%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $29 $37 +$9 (+30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-20 House seat? No 7¢ 6¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the IL-08 House seat? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-09 House seat? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $25 +$2 (+6%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-40%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-03 House seat? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-07 House seat? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 10¢ 20¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Marshawn Lynch buy the Seattle Seahawks? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $44 $20 −$24 (-55%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $37 $20 −$17 (-46%)
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $32 $20 −$13 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-05 House seat? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +246%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $157 +$7 +4%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $39 −$12 -31%
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -41%
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$14 +23%
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -88%
Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 14 $1 +$2 +133%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +7%
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $0 +$3 +142281%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Türkiye be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -37%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $10 +$37 +364%
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in June 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% −$645
politics 13% −$38
world 11% +$44
tech 8% +$12
sports 5% +$66
finance 1% +$24
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1m
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1m
Will Satou Sabally win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2m
Will Breanna Stewart win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2m
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 4m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 5m
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6m
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 10m
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 4¢ $2 14m
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 9¢ $5 17m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 18m
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 25m
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 25m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 26m
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 11¢ $2 27m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 27m
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes 9¢ $2 27m
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 27m
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 31m
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 32m
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 33m
Will Satou Sabally win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33m
Will Harry Kane win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 37m
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? SELL No 9¢ $3 37m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 +42.7% +29.1% 47% 36% -5.1%
≤30d 264 +42.7% +29.1% 47% 36% -5.1%
≤90d 264 +42.7% +29.1% 47% 36% -5.1%
all 264 +42.7% +29.1% 47% 36% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover485.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.1% 36% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here +16.7% 29% -14.2%
15% +5.5% 26% -22.5%
20% -4.9% 22% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,036.32 · official $3,450.09 · 3500 history records