Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa815…a3c3 crypto 522 markets active 231d ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53,644 (-2%) realized −$53,644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%340W / 237L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,484per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$76,727
other 21% +$31,957
sports 17% +$6,180
politics 7% +$3,832
economics 5% +$57,015
world 4% −$9,781
culture 2% +$30,233
tech 1% +$1,177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -86.1% -87.5% 2% 2% -99.8%
≤30d 54 -86.1% -87.5% 2% 2% -99.8%
≤90d 54 -86.1% -87.5% 2% 2% -99.8%
all 577 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 35% -12.4%
10% -21.7% 17% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -29.3% 9% -28.5%
20% -36.2% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -118% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$4,530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$862 vs −$1,791 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$53,644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses340 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)577 / 522
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$4,484
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 577 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 29 $2 +$422 +26779%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20? Jun 29 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? Jun 29 $24 −$2,114 -8884%
Euro Basket: Finland vs Serbia Jun 29 $4,710 −$4,710 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? Jun 29 $360 −$630 -175%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $4,350 −$4,350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18? Jun 29 $6,858 −$8,760 -128%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 4? Jun 29 $2,772 −$2,772 -100%
Bitcoin above $112.5K on August 21 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $3,155 −$6,274 -199%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 28 at 4 Jun 29 $1,971 −$2,060 -104%
Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? Jun 29 $1,647 −$1,647 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Will another person win the Bolivian election? Jun 29 $9,317 −$9,317 -100%
Ethereum above $4500 on September 3? Jun 29 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on August 29? Jun 29 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $3,520 −$3,520 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 31 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $0 −$5,688 -1256761%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3000 on July 15 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $574 −$1,438 -250%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 26? Jun 29 $209 −$209 -100%
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev Jun 29 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff? Jun 29 $28,491 −$28,491 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Jun 29 $641 −$1,927 -301%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $7,504 −$7,830 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on August 12 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $1 −$1,868 -291836%
ATP Cincinnati - Zverev vs. Alcaraz Jun 29 $628 −$628 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 29 $930 −$930 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2025-09-09? Jun 29 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Tiafoe vs. Rune Jun 29 $603 −$603 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3200 and $3300 on July 17 at 5P Jun 29 $603 −$603 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5? Jun 29 $43 +$281 +647%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 21 at 5PM ET? Jun 29 $6,661 −$7,602 -114%
Euro Basket: Portugal vs Germany Jun 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin above $114.5K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $376 −$541 -144%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $111,500 on September 9 at 12PM ET? Jun 29 $1,184 −$1,184 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on July 25? Jun 29 $487 −$487 -100%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 mi Jun 29 $1,740 −$5,939 -341%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jun 29 $2,274 −$2,710 -119%
Will Bitcoin reach $118K August 4–10? Jun 29 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Jun 29 $2,597 −$4,834 -186%
Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? Jun 29 $1,598 −$1,598 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? Jun 29 $8,151 −$8,151 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jun 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 August 4–10? Jun 29 $1,511 −$1,792 -119%
Will Bitcoin dip to $116k August 11–17? Jun 29 $2,572 −$2,572 -100%
ATP Toronto – Zverev vs. Khachanov Jun 29 $1,725 −$1,725 -100%
US Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 29 $649 −$785 -121%
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 29 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $1 −$1,487 -165250%
Bitcoin above $113.5K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Jun 29 $11,548 −$11,740 -102%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-10? Jun 29 $3,164 −$3,164 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes 2¢ $74 230d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $772 230d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,748 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor SELL Fritz 67¢ $2,010 230d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $2,790 230d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 95¢ $2,855 230d
Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by November 30? SELL No 82¢ $2,855 230d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL No 96¢ $3,163 230d
Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,603 230d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? SELL No 86¢ $3,580 230d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs? SELL Yes 49¢ $2,461 230d
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4,087 230d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 81¢ $4,050 230d
Will the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs? SELL Yes 16¢ $825 230d
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? SELL No 97¢ $5,967 230d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 92¢ $9,190 230d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 87¢ $9,518 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $84 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $79 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $17 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $7 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $17 230d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor BUY Fritz 68¢ $476 230d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $104 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $440 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $200 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $88 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $60 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $222 231d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? BUY No 88¢ $73 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.79 (match) · 3500 history records