Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa812…51e7 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-5%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$61
14 days−$69
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$14
crypto 28% +$2
sports 15% −$34
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -37.7% -43.6% 27% 20% -20.0%
≤30d 34 -19.6% -27.3% 29% 24% -12.0%
≤90d 34 -19.6% -27.3% 29% 24% -12.0%
all 36 -24.1% -31.3% 28% 22% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 22% -13.6%
10% -37.9% 22% -21.9%
15% -43.9% 22% -29.4%
20% -49.4% 22% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $36 −$5 -12%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 +$23 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$32 +158%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $57 −$9 -16%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 −$5 -18%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $36 +$2 +6%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $9 +$23 +250%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $10 +$30 +294%
Will Fulham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-16? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 29h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $5 29h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $6 29h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $6 29h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 88 history records