Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa812…e295 crypto 973 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%970W / 2L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 275 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 972 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 972 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses970 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)972 / 973
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $4.91 (match) · 1945 history records