Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa811…75b8 weather 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$598 (-3%) realized −$600 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate82%214W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$260
14 days−$238
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.6% -26.3% 73% 35% -33.1%
≤30d 77 -7.6% -16.4% 82% 45% -17.0%
≤90d 262 +0.0% -9.5% 82% 56% -12.4%
all 262 +0.0% -9.5% 82% 56% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 56% -12.4%
10% -18.2% 18% -20.8%
15% -26.1% 7% -28.4%
20% -33.3% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$71 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses214 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage65d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? No 89¢ 93¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $16 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $51 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$14 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 08 $34 +$14 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 05 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $97 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 24? Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 28? May 29 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $41 +$4 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 26? May 27 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May May 25 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May May 25 $18 +$6 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $13 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $37 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $45 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $40 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.08 · official $52.08 (match) · 1571 history records