Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa810…bf02 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized +$117 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate79%63W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$43
14 days−$142
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$36
other 9% −$95
world 2% −$27
politics 1% +$6
sports 1% −$7
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.7% -2.5% 89% 11% -5.7%
≤30d 15 -6.9% -15.8% 67% 20% -12.7%
≤90d 80 -4.8% -13.9% 79% 29% -8.7%
all 80 -4.8% -13.9% 79% 29% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 29% -8.7%
10% -22.1% 15% -17.4%
15% -29.6% 9% -25.4%
20% -36.5% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,794
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses63 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)80 / 107
History coverage86d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? No 89¢ 96¢ $89 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 29? No 95¢ 92¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 94¢ 91¢ $94 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 30? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $81 $88 +$7 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? No 92¢ 84¢ $92 $84 −$9 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 29? No 87¢ 83¢ $87 $83 −$4 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Yes 88¢ 80¢ $88 $80 −$8 (-9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 28? No 95¢ 77¢ $95 $77 −$18 (-19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? Yes 92¢ 76¢ $92 $76 −$16 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $84 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $65 $68 +$2 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+8%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 92¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 90¢ 78¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 77¢ 41¢ $38 $21 −$18 (-46%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? No 85¢ 17¢ $85 $17 −$68 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $279 −$24 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 11 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 26 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 26 $54 +$46 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? May 10 $34 +$16 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $77 +$23 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $52 +$48 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 8? May 10 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in April? May 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? May 08 $76 +$15 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 08 $145 +$55 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 5? May 08 $163 +$37 +23%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 08 $798 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? May 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $29 −$14 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 28 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 28 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17? Apr 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $54 +$6 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 28 $50 +$10 +21%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? Apr 22 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 17 $17 +$1 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 16 $29 −$29 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15? Apr 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY No 89¢ $89 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $95 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 20h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $95 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $87 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $92 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $95 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $85 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $255 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $95 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,794.29 · official $1,811.40 (match) · 275 history records