trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 25% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 29% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 24 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 42% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 43¢ | 44¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $27 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $58 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $28 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 27 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 22 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 21 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 14 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |