Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa80e…9fd6 sports 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,801 (-10%) realized −$1,815 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%59W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$1,183
14 days+$963
30 days+$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,823
other 16% +$137
world 1% +$241
politics 1% −$99
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +11.0% +0.5% 25% 25% +52.7%
≤30d 100 -7.0% -15.8% 23% 23% +13.7%
≤90d 103 -9.7% -18.3% 22% 22% -6.3%
all 205 -14.6% -22.7% 29% 29% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 29% -18.4%
10% -30.1% 27% -26.2%
15% -36.8% 27% -33.3%
20% -43.0% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$70 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,815
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses59 / 146
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage235d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $67 −$39 -58%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $67 +$143 +213%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $113 +$182 +161%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $69 +$217 +317%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $66 +$252 +385%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $150 −$147 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $65 +$148 +226%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$179 +221%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $51 +$76 +147%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $126 +$237 +189%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 +$32 +204%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 +$261 +1692%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $51 +$92 +181%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $133 +$201 +151%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12m
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 12¢ $29 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $211 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $67 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $67 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $296 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $113 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 13h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $286 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $318 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $40 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $26 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $69 22h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $150 34h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 34h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 38h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 38h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.63 · official $37.63 (match) · 309 history records