Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa80e…6aa1 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10,452 (+3%) realized +$25,196 · open −$14,744
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,617per market
Trades / day114.5pace
Fees−$2,486est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$143,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$11,438
sports 45% −$22,540
crypto 5% +$5,283
world 1% +$4,925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -3.3%
≤30d 23 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -3.3%
≤90d 23 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -3.3%
all 23 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 48% -3.3%
10% -17.3% 48% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 43% -21.0%
20% -32.6% 39% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$10,075) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,809 vs −$6,004 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$143,480
Realized+$25,196
Unrealized−$14,744
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,486
Open positions33
Markets (closed)23 / 56
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6,617
Trades / day114.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $23,763 $23,861 +$98 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $16,324 $14,273 −$2,052 (-13%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 46¢ $11,500 $11,375 −$125 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $10,000 $9,501 −$499 (-5%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 58¢ $8,168 $8,238 +$70 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $4,482 $7,480 +$2,998 (+67%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $6,776 $6,541 −$235 (-3%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $5,641 $5,765 +$125 (+2%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 52¢ 52¢ $5,818 $5,764 −$54 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $5,578 $5,341 −$237 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $4,880 $5,000 +$120 (+2%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 95¢ $4,171 $4,925 +$753 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4,160 $4,300 +$140 (+3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 60¢ $3,990 $4,165 +$175 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 42¢ 46¢ $3,696 $4,004 +$308 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $4,000 $3,950 −$50 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $3,270 $3,621 +$351 (+11%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $3,600 $3,550 −$50 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1,984 $2,075 +$91 (+5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2,040 $2,069 +$29 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $1,728 $1,699 −$29 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 48¢ $1,711 $1,594 −$117 (-7%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,600 $1,575 −$25 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 61¢ 64¢ $940 $994 +$54 (+6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 46¢ $430 $455 +$25 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8,062 +$6,938 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,075 +$4,925 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8,400 +$6,600 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,239 −$5,200 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $9,560 −$9,380 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $18,789 −$18,570 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,675 −$1,675 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48,313 +$27,435 +57%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $722 +$1,994 +276%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,552 −$3,500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,479 +$5,521 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,075 −$75 -1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,506 −$2,462 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,180 −$10,180 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9,148 +$10,852 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17,520 +$13,480 +77%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5,549 +$1,451 +26%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,207 −$2,207 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8,062 −$8,062 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6,486 −$6,486 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,337 +$2,663 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,661 +$4,039 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $14 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $432 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $7,136 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3,232 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $768 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $4,675 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $6,733 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $1 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $63 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $66 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $3 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $12 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $3 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $6 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $28 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $13 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $13 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $4 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143,480.19 · official $143,483.16 (match) · 596 history records