Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa80d…d09f crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+25%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$90
crypto 36% −$10
other 20% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.7% -2.6% 35% 35% +61.5%
≤30d 17 +7.7% -2.6% 35% 35% +61.5%
≤90d 17 +7.7% -2.6% 35% 35% +61.5%
all 17 +7.7% -2.6% 35% 35% +61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 35% +61.5%
10% -11.9% 35% +46.0%
15% -20.4% 35% +31.9%
20% -28.2% 35% +19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$3 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -61%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$58 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$26 +504%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$9 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 14m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 47m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $80 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $21 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $9 3h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $7 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $18 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $14 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records