Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa80a…553f world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
other 28% +$22
sports 16% +$6
politics 6% −$6
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 33% -8.5%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 8% -9.7%
all 39 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 13% -8.1%
10% -18.1% 10% -16.9%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage284d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $35 −$5 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $133 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $124 +$6 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $29 −$6 -21%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 14 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $30 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $26 +$6 +24%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $33 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $29 +$10 +33%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 05 $30 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 08 $31 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $68 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $55 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $66 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $73 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $73 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $16 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $40 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $77 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.56 · official $67.56 (match) · 316 history records