Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A8 0xa805…0b58 crypto 457 markets active 22h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$8 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%242W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$35
other 18% +$14
sports 7% +$3
world 4% −$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -18.3% -26.1% 38% 36% -5.9%
≤30d 454 -9.3% -17.9% 53% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 455 -9.2% -17.9% 53% 51% -11.9%
all 455 -9.2% -17.9% 53% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 51% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 50% -20.3%
15% -32.9% 49% -28.0%
20% -39.5% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses242 / 213
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)455 / 457
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 +$8 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 −$7 -30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +179%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$11 +81%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $69 +$14 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $65 +$2 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 +$11 +52%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$5 +123%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$7 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $30 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $6 +$8 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 28 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $10 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $9 26h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 41h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 41h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 7¢ $2 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 43h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $8 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $10 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 80¢ $11 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $10 46h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $63 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 874 history records