Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A8 0xa800…bd7a other 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 654d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114,219 (-9%) realized −$104,269 · open −$9,950
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%212W / 244L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,693per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1,976est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$17,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 654d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$8,924
other 24% −$26,010
politics 22% −$178,667
world 5% +$155
economics 3% +$4,567
finance 2% −$13,588
tech 1% −$6,212
culture 1% +$5,269
crypto 0% −$1,785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.0% -33.1% 31% 19% -56.0%
≤30d 25 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 32% -36.3%
≤90d 69 -13.4% -21.6% 43% 41% -27.9%
all 456 -16.8% -24.7% 46% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 43% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 36% -31.9%
15% -38.5% 31% -38.5%
20% -44.5% 28% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,867 vs −$2,505 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$17,562
Realized−$104,269
Unrealized−$9,950
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses212 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,976
Open positions34
Markets (closed)456 / 490
History coverage654d
Avg bet$2,693
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $3,408 $3,524 +$117 (+3%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $3,007 $3,027 +$19 (+1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 18¢ $6,964 $2,708 −$4,256 (-61%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 26¢ $2,292 $1,008 −$1,284 (-56%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 49¢ 99¢ $392 $789 +$397 (+101%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 57¢ $825 $627 −$198 (-24%)
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 19¢ $1,341 $601 −$740 (-55%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $1,162 $564 −$598 (-51%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $2,222 $552 −$1,670 (-75%)
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $457 $470 +$13 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 73¢ 30¢ $1,000 $417 −$583 (-58%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $500 $410 −$90 (-18%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 69¢ 63¢ $350 $321 −$29 (-8%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 76¢ 70¢ $333 $307 −$26 (-8%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 69¢ 90¢ $211 $275 +$64 (+30%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 90¢ 93¢ $255 $262 +$7 (+3%)
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 90¢ 87¢ $222 $216 −$6 (-3%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 69¢ 13¢ $1,000 $189 −$811 (-81%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027? No 78¢ 87¢ $130 $144 +$14 (+11%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 51¢ 48¢ $153 $142 −$10 (-7%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 69¢ 76¢ $125 $137 +$12 (+10%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $250 $134 −$116 (-46%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $102 $111 +$9 (+9%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? No 83¢ 80¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,789 −$186 -10%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Jun 27 $761 +$173 +23%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 27 $1,111 −$132 -12%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 27 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 27 $2,222 +$3 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $11,823 −$11,665 -99%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 25 $2,366 −$424 -18%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 25 $3,346 −$134 -4%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 25 $2,577 −$7 -0%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $11,185 −$11,000 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4,522 −$4,480 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5,850 +$6,138 +105%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $3,750 +$3,750 +100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $8,500 −$8,360 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,973 −$2,958 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,119 −$1,100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,552 +$3,364 +95%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,552 −$1,530 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $6,035 +$5,194 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $2,536 −$2,500 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,650 +$1,350 +82%
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 31 $25 +$5 +20%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $6,665 +$5,735 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $1,039 −$1,039 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $5,075 +$4,925 +97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9,751 −$9,697 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 May 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $4,400 +$3,941 +90%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 05 $4,570 +$4,434 +97%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 03 $999 +$278 +28%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $1,111 +$213 +19%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 03 $1,525 +$1,277 +84%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $2,260 +$2,072 +92%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 30 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 27 $5,000 +$5,048 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $3,446 −$3,446 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $2,500 +$2,480 +99%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Apr 18 $4,620 −$4,566 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4,798 −$4,700 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $4,337 −$4,273 -98%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $2,000 +$1,286 +64%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $2,500 −$2,462 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $5,000 +$3,659 +73%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $2,505 −$2,467 -98%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 10 $2,500 −$2,464 -99%
Celtics vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Apr 10 $3,000 +$2,910 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10,000 +$8,602 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $14 21m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 47m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $18 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $7,079 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $1,603 1h
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $934 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 58¢ $979 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $1,006 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $43 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $2,225 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $38 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2,566 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4,905 2d
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,942 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 80¢ $3,212 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,570 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4,324 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $11,185 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $493 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $37 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,562.05 · official $17,562.16 (match) · 2007 history records