Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7ff…2ea2 tech 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized −$22 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% +$11
tech 27% +$19
economics 12% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.7% -27.4% 67% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 8 -25.2% -32.3% 62% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 8 -25.2% -32.3% 62% 0% -13.6%
all 8 -25.2% -32.3% 62% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 0% -13.6%
10% -38.8% 0% -21.9%
15% -44.7% 0% -29.5%
20% -50.1% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $434 +$23 +5%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in May? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 86¢ $27 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes $4 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $38 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $31 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $10 39h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $5 39h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 79¢ $25 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 42¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $167 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $164 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $57 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.62 · official $181.62 (match) · 49 history records