Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa7fe…1f3e world 846 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,111 (+3%) realized +$1,227 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%311W / 485L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$417
7 days−$189
14 days−$157
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$455
other 33% +$40
politics 19% +$325
tech 5% −$122
sports 2% +$294
weather 1% −$244
crypto 1% −$41
culture 1% −$158
finance 1% −$34
economics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -49.9% -54.7% 32% 29% -17.3%
≤30d 124 +21.0% +9.5% 31% 27% -3.3%
≤90d 624 +3.4% -6.5% 39% 35% -8.1%
all 796 +6.5% -3.7% 39% 35% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 35% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 31% -18.5%
15% -21.3% 25% -26.4%
20% -29.0% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,604
Realized+$1,227
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses311 / 485
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions71
Markets (closed)796 / 846
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $475 $524 +$49 (+10%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $195 $229 +$34 (+18%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? No 95¢ 98¢ $171 $176 +$5 (+3%)
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 7¢ 64¢ $11 $99 +$88 (+830%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $54 $48 −$7 (-12%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 66¢ 72¢ $38 $42 +$3 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-12%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $28 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 38¢ 40¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? No 50¢ 75¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $10 $17 +$8 (+80%)
Will Ashley Avignone be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 13¢ 19¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+46%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 42¢ 18¢ $37 $15 −$22 (-59%)
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E6 S9? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $29 $12 −$16 (-56%)
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-20%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+18%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on May 7? Jun 26 $10 −$20 -208%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 26 $1 −$1 -101%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $38 −$11 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Monash FODMAP Diet be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Ma Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 7? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 7,000 and Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on May 7? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -101%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on March 31? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 7,500 and Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 25 $43 +$9 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $58 −$8 -13%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $374 +$121 +32%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $25 −$11 -44%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $121 +$13 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$2 +10%
Will anyone say "Kingdom" during House of the Dragon E1 S3? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will anyone say "Surrender" during House of the Dragon E1 S3? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $39 +$8 +21%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $16 +$7 +47%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $17 −$2 -12%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $90 +$103 +113%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $56 +$16 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$6 -32%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $41 +$22 +52%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 18 $1 $0 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $23 +$121 +532%
Will anyone say "Power" during House of the Dragon E1 S3? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -96%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $57 +$12 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $188 +$10 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$12 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 56m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 57m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 57m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 57m
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 57m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 59m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 59m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 59m
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 59m
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 2h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 2h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 2h
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 5h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 38¢ $19 7h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $37 8h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 8h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $49 8h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $73 8h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? SELL No 12¢ $11 19h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 87¢ $239 19h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso BUY No 95¢ $171 19h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 86¢ $239 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,604.02 · official $1,604.99 (match) · 3500 history records